DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The WarriorsQloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 31 game
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 24 games
Slardar
nicky`cool · 23 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 19 games
Doomsignature
Alberkaaa · 15 games
Snapfire
nicky`cool · 15 games
The WarriorsQ
Dark Willow
Krinzhik · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Kami · 3 games
Disruptor
JANTER · 2 games
Baneoften banned
JANTER · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Katsura · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katsura · 1 game
Largooften banned
Katsura · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Kami · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
518 picks · 337 bans
Dark Willow
449 picks · 241 bans
Mirana
402 picks · 182 bans
Winter Wyvern
354 picks · 325 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 511 bans
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 292 bans
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
293 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:17
Power Rangers 63%The WarriorsQ 37%
The model gave 63% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerOtaker
Ember SpiritKatsura
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
DoomKami
ViperAlberkaaa
Slarkicq
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
HoodwinkJANTER
Nyx AssassinImmersion
GyrocopterKrinzhik
Game 2prediction missed16:34
Power Rangers 62%The WarriorsQ 38%
The model gave 62% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by The WarriorsQ in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
NecrophosKatsura
WindrangerOtaker
Svenicq
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
TimbersawKami
Dark WillowImmersion
HoodwinkKrinzhik
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
Witch DoctorJANTER
Game 3prediction correct29:14
Power Rangers 62%The WarriorsQ 38%
The model gave 62% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawAlberkaaa
Nature's Propheticq
WindrangerOtaker
TidehunterKami
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Outworld DestroyerKatsura
Enchantressasdekor_r
RingmasterKrinzhik
Dark WillowImmersion
Witch DoctorJANTER
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 72%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3