DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shadow Danceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Hoodwink
sayuw · 29 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 25 games
Ringmaster
RESPECT · 23 games
Pangolier
Mirage · 17 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 16 games
Pucksignature
Mirage · 16 games
Axeoften banned
Corrupted · 14 games
Centaur Warrunner
Corrupted · 13 games
Shadow Dance
Anti-Mage
hairo · 1 game
Baneoften banned
kyford · 1 game
Windranger
slimeyao · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
533 picks · 352 bans
Dark Willow
471 picks · 259 bans
Mirana
413 picks · 185 bans
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 341 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 525 bans
Windranger
317 picks · 148 bans
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 297 bans
Earth Spirit
300 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:32
HULIGANI 73%Shadow Dance 27%
The model gave 73% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:30.
Game 2prediction correct28:33
HULIGANI 73%Shadow Dance 27%
The model gave 73% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 73%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2