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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 8 games
88%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 7 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 6 games
67%

Team Aster

Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddon
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 13 games
62%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
LaNm · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
70%
Luna
Lunasignature
LaNm · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
447 picks · 1004 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
420 picks · 610 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 650 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
336 picks · 641 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
331 picks · 281 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
267 picks · 380 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
261 picks · 433 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:27
Thunder Awaken 60%Team Aster 40%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 50:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageMnz
34% · 18 games54% · 55 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Windranger
WindrangerLeostyle
32% · 11 games48% · 38 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierFrank
55% · 57 games46% · 45 games
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
Storm Spirit
Tusk
TuskMoOz
53% · 81 game53% · 102 games
Death ProphetLaNm
Death Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
48% · 73 games
Game 2prediction correct20:9
Thunder Awaken 61%Team Aster 39%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMnz
63% · 55 games55% · 67 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Lina
LinaLeostyle
40% · 11 games46% · 115 games
Death ProphetWhite丶Album
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierFrank
51% · 61 game42% · 47 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
48% · 91 game50% · 80 games
OracleLaNm
Oracle
Tusk
TuskMoOz
48% · 91 game
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 64%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2