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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 14 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 13 games
92%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 8 games
38%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
poyoyo · 8 games
50%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Taiga · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
iNSaNiA · 7 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 1004 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
419 picks · 609 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 649 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
336 picks · 639 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
330 picks · 281 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
267 picks · 378 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
261 picks · 432 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:15
Vici Gaming 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautpoyoyo
58% · 69 games35% · 36 games
LeshracmiCKe
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritOri
51% · 56 games61% · 10 games
Razorqojqva
Razor
Alchemist
AlchemistELeVeN
49% · 57 games41% · 149 games
PuckBoxi
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
53% · 134 games53% · 94 games
Earth SpiritTaiga
Earth Spirit
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
59% · 41 game46% · 68 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Vici Gaming 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
56% · 81 game57% · 3 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
53% · 156 games42% · 63 games
EnigmaTaiga
Enigma
Slardar
SlardarELeVeN
60% · 16 games49% · 60 games
Storm Spiritqojqva
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
56% · 91 game41% · 21 game
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinDy
57% · 62 games43% · 259 games
PuckiNSaNiA
Puck
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 56%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2