ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 13 games
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 11 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 9 games
Tusk
Pyw · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
poyoyo · 8 games
Team Liquid
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 17 games
Pucksignature
miCKe · 15 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Tusk
Taiga · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
iNSaNiA · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
445 picks · 1004 bans
Void Spirit
419 picks · 609 bans
Mars
369 picks · 649 bans
Death Prophet
336 picks · 639 bans
Earth Spirit
330 picks · 281 bans
Phoenix
267 picks · 378 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
Wraith King
261 picks · 432 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:15
Vici Gaming 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautpoyoyo
LeshracmiCKe
Storm SpiritOri
Razorqojqva
AlchemistELeVeN
PuckBoxi
Shadow ShamanPyw
Earth SpiritTaiga
Elder TitanDy
OracleiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Vici Gaming 55%Team Liquid 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
SvenmiCKe
Void SpiritOri
EnigmaTaiga
SlardarELeVeN
Storm Spiritqojqva
Shadow ShamanPyw
TinyBoxi
Nyx AssassinDy
PuckiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 56%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2