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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 11 games
82%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 9 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 1004 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
417 picks · 608 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 647 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
334 picks · 638 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
328 picks · 281 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
266 picks · 377 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
260 picks · 432 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:31
Fnatic 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 46:35.
Game 2prediction missed16:26
Fnatic 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 24:03.
Game 3prediction missed24:5
Fnatic 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 51%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3