Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 4 games
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RR · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
441 picks · 1003 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 608 bans
Mars
367 picks · 647 bans
Death Prophet
333 picks · 637 bans
Earth Spirit
328 picks · 281 bans
Phoenix
264 picks · 377 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
Wraith King
259 picks · 432 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 51%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect