Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RGRoshan Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Clockwerk
Nuages · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 3 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 3 games
Roshan Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
441 picks · 996 bans
Void Spirit
412 picks · 607 bans
Mars
363 picks · 643 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 633 bans
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 279 bans
Rubick
263 picks · 176 bans
Phoenix
260 picks · 372 bans
Wraith King
258 picks · 432 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Roshan Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoshan Gaming · 51%
Series resultIncubus Club 2:0
Series predictionmissed