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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 7 games
86%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 7 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 7 games
86%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 6 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
50%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 16 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 14 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
440 picks · 996 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
412 picks · 607 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 643 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
328 picks · 632 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 278 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 176 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
259 picks · 372 bans
60%
Wraith King
Wraith King
258 picks · 430 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:7
Thunder Awaken 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 23:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMnz
38% · 12 games57% · 57 games
AlchemistNothingToSay
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawFrank
53% · 58 games59% · 16 games
RazorAme
Razor
Puck
PuckLeostyle
44% · 143 games51% · 135 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Tusk
TuskMoOz
38% · 75 games52% · 78 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
50% · 83 games58% · 85 games
Nyx Assassiny`
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct45:30
Thunder Awaken 51%LGD Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMnz
57% · 36 games51% · 43 games
Nature's ProphetAme
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLeostyle
43% · 3 games71% · 3 games
MagnusNothingToSay
Magnus
Pangolier
PangolierFrank
50% · 59 gameslittle data
TechiesXinQ
Techies
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMoOz
76% · 25 games32% · 39 games
Outworld DestroyerFaith_bian
Outworld Destroyer
Oracle
OracleMjz
52% · 44 games44% · 82 games
Tusky`
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 55%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2