i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CDEC Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 4 games
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
440 picks · 996 bans
Void Spirit
412 picks · 607 bans
Mars
362 picks · 643 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 632 bans
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 278 bans
Rubick
263 picks · 176 bans
Phoenix
259 picks · 372 bans
Wraith King
258 picks · 430 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 58%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed