?
arrow_backBack to match
ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 7 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 7 games
86%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 6 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 5 games
100%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 11 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 11 games
91%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 10 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 9 games
44%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
poyoyo · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 994 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
412 picks · 604 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 642 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
328 picks · 627 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
322 picks · 277 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 176 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
258 picks · 425 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
257 picks · 369 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:24
Thunder Awaken 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMnz
42% · 39 games47% · 58 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFrank
56% · 44 games57% · 6 games
Shadow FiendOri
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLeostyle
58% · 51 game50% · 80 games
PangolierELeVeN
Pangolier
Lion
LionMjz
46% · 52 games47% · 73 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMoOz
50% · 93 games51% · 62 games
Nyx AssassinDy
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct41:18
Thunder Awaken 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMnz
37% · 63 games46% · 73 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFrank
50% · 4 games53% · 52 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Puck
PuckLeostyle
45% · 142 games53% · 68 games
PangolierELeVeN
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMoOz
45% · 116 games67% · 123 games
PhoenixPyw
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleMjz
52% · 93 games55% · 102 games
Nyx AssassinDy
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2