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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 9 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 9 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 7 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 7 games
57%

Thunder Awaken

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 7 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 6 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 5 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
430 picks · 983 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 598 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
354 picks · 638 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
318 picks · 272 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
316 picks · 621 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
261 picks · 175 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
256 picks · 423 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
254 picks · 360 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:31
Neon Esports 44%Thunder Awaken 56%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSkem
56% · 46 games54% · 40 games
Phantom AssassinMnz
Phantom Assassin
Lycan
LycanDeth
53% · 55 games73% · 16 games
RazorLeostyle
Razor
Oracle
OracleYopaj
42% · 86 games47% · 108 games
MarsFrank
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixPlayHard
58% · 81 game55% · 117 games
Death ProphetMjz
Death Prophet
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordJaunuel
39% · 81 game47% · 68 games
Shadow ShamanMoOz
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed38:13
Neon Esports 43%Thunder Awaken 57%
The model gave 57% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSkem
50% · 223 games59% · 118 games
Wraith KingMnz
Wraith King
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
54% · 28 games48% · 69 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderDeth
51% · 20 games52% · 197 games
Void SpiritLeostyle
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickPlayHard
39% · 105 games54% · 45 games
EnigmaMoOz
Enigma
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritJaunuel
45% · 144 games54% · 91 game
OracleMjz
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2