ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 7 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
Earthshaker
MoOz · 4 games
Team Aster
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
LaNm · 11 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 11 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 11 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
426 picks · 981 bans
Void Spirit
404 picks · 595 bans
Mars
353 picks · 636 bans
Earth Spirit
316 picks · 271 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 617 bans
Rubick
260 picks · 174 bans
Wraith King
256 picks · 422 bans
Phoenix
253 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:23
Thunder Awaken 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 49:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaMnz
PuckWhite丶Album
Nature's ProphetLeostyle
Phantom LancerMonet
Death ProphetFrank
LycanXxs
Earth SpiritMoOz
Nyx AssassinLaNm
OracleMjz
Game 2prediction correct21:7
Thunder Awaken 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 22:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinLeostyle
JuggernautMonet
WeaverMnz
PuckWhite丶Album
Nature's ProphetFrank
Dragon KnightXxs
Earth SpiritMoOz
AbaddonLaNm
MarsMjz
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 51%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2