?
arrow_backBack to match
ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 15 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%

Neon Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 9 games
89%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 8 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 7 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 7 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
PlayHard · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 981 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
404 picks · 595 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 636 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
316 picks · 271 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 617 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
260 picks · 174 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
256 picks · 422 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
253 picks · 357 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
LGD Gaming 57%Neon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
54% · 72 games50% · 40 games
TerrorbladeSkem
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
49% · 190 games49% · 174 games
Void SpiritYopaj
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
58% · 72 games44% · 73 games
PangolierRapy
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXinQ
62% · 18 games47% · 47 games
LionPlayHard
Lion
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
50% · 52 games45% · 70 games
TuskJaunuel
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:21
LGD Gaming 56%Neon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
44% · 62 games47% · 90 games
Troll WarlordSkem
Troll Warlord
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
49% · 233 games58% · 201 game
Void SpiritYopaj
Void Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
51% · 128 games50% · 76 games
TidehunterRapy
Tidehunter
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
43% · 16 games45% · 134 games
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
Tusky`
53% · 93 games58% · 31 game
Elder TitanJaunuel
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 60%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2