i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Phoenix Gaming
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Molasses · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
426 picks · 973 bans
Void Spirit
401 picks · 592 bans
Mars
349 picks · 634 bans
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 271 bans
Death Prophet
309 picks · 614 bans
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
Phoenix
252 picks · 352 bans
Wraith King
252 picks · 420 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:34
Team MagMa 27%Phoenix Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 33:43.
Game 2prediction correct42:26
Team MagMa 27%Phoenix Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 45:12.
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 73%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2