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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 10 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 9 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 8 games
88%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
88%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
86%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
423 picks · 970 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
396 picks · 591 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 629 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 271 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
306 picks · 612 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
251 picks · 417 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
250 picks · 348 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:25
Team Aster 51%LGD Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMonet
46% · 91 game53% · 24 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWhite丶Album
53% · 191 game50% · 132 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Magnus
MagnusXxs
43% · 3 games50% · 66 games
Death ProphetFaith_bian
Death Prophet
Luna
LunaLaNm
49% · 18 games52% · 32 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
47% · 49 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct43:24
Team Aster 51%LGD Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
40% · 59 games50% · 22 games
WeaverAme
Weaver
Spectre
SpectreMonet
little data47% · 24 games
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
43% · 41 game57% · 53 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonLaNm
47% · 47 games66% · 11 games
Lunay`
Luna
65% · 37 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2