ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Earthshaker
MoOz · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
422 picks · 967 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 590 bans
Mars
349 picks · 627 bans
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 271 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 610 bans
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 417 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 794 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:40
Alliance 47%Thunder Awaken 53%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:04.
Game 2prediction correct20:40
Alliance 47%Thunder Awaken 53%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 43:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 53%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2