PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BTC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NGNew Growthloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BTC Gaming
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Tusk
Mjz · 3 games
Chenoften banned
Prada · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Disruptor
Prada · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Prada · 2 games
New Growth
Dazzle
Panda · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Panda · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 2 games
Disruptor
Panda · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Panda · 1 game
Tusk
StingeR · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
544 picks · 892 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 392 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 647 bans
Centaur Warrunner
471 picks · 599 bans
Shadow Demon
402 picks · 846 bans
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 593 bans
Mars
351 picks · 493 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% New Growth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% New Growth
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:28
BTC Gaming 44%New Growth 56%
The model gave 56% on New Growth — the game was taken by New Growth in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendLumière
ClockwerkStingeR
WindrangerMnz
SnapfireMjz
ChenPrada
Game 2prediction missed25:14
BTC Gaming 45%New Growth 55%
The model gave 55% on New Growth — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMnz
WarlockStingeR
ViperLumière
RingmasterMjz
ClockwerkPrada
Game 3prediction missed29:17
BTC Gaming 42%New Growth 58%
The model gave 58% on New Growth — the game was taken by BTC Gaming in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarMnz
Naga SirenStingeR
Storm SpiritLumière
PhoenixMjz
ClockwerkPrada
Model check result
Model favoriteNew Growth · 62%
Series resultBTC Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3