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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Frank · 5 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MoOz · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
MoOz · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 3 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
33%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 11 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
63%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 7 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 6 games
33%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boxi · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
418 picks · 964 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
389 picks · 586 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 624 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 270 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 608 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
248 picks · 414 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
247 picks · 346 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:14
Thunder Awaken 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMnz
46% · 39 games46% · 193 games
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
60% · 69 games52% · 41 game
Lycanqojqva
Lycan
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLeostyle
56% · 158 games49% · 109 games
Death ProphetBoxi
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaMoOz
53% · 52 games41% · 15 games
TinyTaiga
Tiny
Oracle
OracleMjz
45% · 79 games49% · 39 games
AbaddoniNSaNiA
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Thunder Awaken 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMnz
55% · 102 games50% · 55 games
WeaverBoxi
Weaver
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLeostyle
51% · 129 games55% · 20 games
Venomancerqojqva
Venomancer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
59% · 86 games45% · 191 game
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMoOz
45% · 111 games49% · 142 games
Void SpiritTaiga
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressMjz
55% · 49 games44% · 69 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 50%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2