EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs predictionMWMena Warriosloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mena Warrios
Dark Willow
islA · 1 game
Dazzle
Nagato · 1 game
Disruptor
Nagato · 1 game
Hoodwink
islA · 1 game
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 1 game
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 1 game
Team Lynx
Hoodwink
QBFY · 39 games
Techies
kreker · 27 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 22 games
Rubick
QBFY · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 19 games
Tinysignature
mellojul · 18 games
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 15 games
Slardarsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
509 picks · 320 bans
Dark Willow
432 picks · 227 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 311 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 492 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 285 bans
Windranger
281 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:29
Mena Warrios 26%Team Lynx 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNo!ob
Dragon KnightVladikTheHtiviy
Earth SpiritislA
Slarkv1olent-
DazzleNagato
Vipermellojul
55% · 72 games
Techieskreker
47% · 134 games
WindrangerQBFY
Game 2prediction correct17:23
Mena Warrios 26%Team Lynx 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld DestroyerNo!ob
Anti-Magev1olent-
DazzleNagato
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Earth SpiritislA
Dragon Knightmellojul
57% · 53 games
TechiesQBFY
59% · 63 games
Winter Wyvernkreker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 87%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2