DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionTKTeam Kinetixwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TAThailand All Starloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kinetix
Baneoften banned
Teehee · 1 game
Dragon Knight
GaN- · 1 game
Hoodwink
Dric~ · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cije · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Rupido · 1 game
Thailand All Star
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
508 picks · 316 bans
Dark Willow
436 picks · 220 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 307 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 494 bans
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 284 bans
Windranger
276 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Thailand All Star
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Kinetix
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Kinetix 59%Thailand All Star 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Kinetix — the game was taken by Team Kinetix.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Kinetix 59%Thailand All Star 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Kinetix — the game was taken by Team Kinetix.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kinetix · 59%
Series resultTeam Kinetix 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2