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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 27 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
41%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 22 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 21 game
43%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 890 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 392 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 645 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 600 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 843 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 590 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
352 picks · 574 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 493 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:8
Yellow Submarine 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonbottega
52% · 238 games41% · 32 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
47% · 301 game51% · 291 game
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
54% · 56 games50% · 22 games
Earth SpiritSerenada
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeprblms
43% · 31 game48% · 101 game
Skywrath MageHellscream
Skywrath Mage
Ringmaster
RingmasterHtrd
56% · 340 games52% · 520 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed33:14
Yellow Submarine 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbottega
53% · 141 game53% · 155 games
MuertaTimado
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
51% · 317 games49% · 354 games
Ember SpiritSerenada
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
46% · 116 games47% · 241 game
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeprblms
55% · 35 games43% · 129 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
RingmasterHtrd
56% · 273 games71% · 3 games
LargoFly
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2