Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportsloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSPecado Squad Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
No games played over 6 months.
Pecado Squad Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
418 picks · 964 bans
Void Spirit
389 picks · 586 bans
Mars
344 picks · 624 bans
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 270 bans
Death Prophet
300 picks · 608 bans
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
Wraith King
248 picks · 414 bans
Phoenix
247 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 50%
Series resultPecado Squad Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed