Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 9 games
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mac · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 6 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
418 picks · 964 bans
Void Spirit
389 picks · 586 bans
Mars
344 picks · 624 bans
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 270 bans
Death Prophet
300 picks · 608 bans
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
Wraith King
248 picks · 414 bans
Phoenix
247 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 76%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed