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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
418 picks · 963 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
389 picks · 585 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 623 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
305 picks · 270 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 607 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
247 picks · 346 bans
60%
Wraith King
Wraith King
247 picks · 414 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Lilgun
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 58%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:1
Series predictionmissed