i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
416 picks · 961 bans
Void Spirit
388 picks · 583 bans
Mars
340 picks · 623 bans
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 270 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 605 bans
Rubick
258 picks · 174 bans
Wraith King
247 picks · 412 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:6
CDEC Gaming 60%Aster.Aries 40%
The model gave 60% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 22:59.
Game 2prediction missed32:16
CDEC Gaming 60%Aster.Aries 40%
The model gave 60% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 28:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 60%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2