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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 5 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Dy · 5 games
80%

Nigma Galaxy

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 6 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KuroKy · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 956 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
381 picks · 580 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 617 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
301 picks · 270 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 597 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
256 picks · 173 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
245 picks · 410 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
242 picks · 543 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Vici Gaming 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
50% · 110 games46% · 178 games
PuckMiracle-
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritOri
47% · 54 games56% · 112 games
Monkey Kingw33
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierELeVeN
52% · 94 games53% · 110 games
Death ProphetrmN-
Death Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
53% · 125 games44% · 93 games
MiranaGH
Mirana
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
52% · 128 games36% · 18 games
Spirit BreakerKuroKy
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed31:68
Vici Gaming 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 56:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracOri
52% · 40 games47% · 57 games
Void SpiritMiracle-
Void Spirit
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
45% · 75 games80% · 11 games
Razorw33
Razor
Luna
LunaPyw
little data50% · 36 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Sand King
Sand KingELeVeN
59% · 20 games45% · 43 games
GrimstrokermN-
Grimstroke
Abaddon
AbaddonDy
51% · 29 games50% · 17 games
Elder TitanKuroKy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2