Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RR · 3 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
409 picks · 956 bans
Void Spirit
381 picks · 580 bans
Mars
337 picks · 617 bans
Earth Spirit
301 picks · 270 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 597 bans
Rubick
256 picks · 173 bans
Wraith King
245 picks · 410 bans
Keeper of the Light
242 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 61%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed