Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Rune Eaters Ariseloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 33 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 25 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
Rune Eaters Arise
Largooften banned
Ankou · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
Techies
waveformn · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
ani-san · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 233 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 636 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 346 bans
Windranger
316 picks · 230 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 396 bans
Bane
294 picks · 283 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:30
Zero Tenacity 57%Rune Eaters Arise 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Shadow Fiendyowaai
UndyingMikSa`
LinaEthereal
PangolierWorick
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Miranamrls
Hoodwinkwaveformn
BaneMoOz
Clockwerkani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 64%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1