Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Crocodileloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RR · 3 games
Crocodile
Elder Titan
QYQX · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Abaddon
QYQX · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 947 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 574 bans
Mars
333 picks · 611 bans
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 264 bans
Death Prophet
295 picks · 585 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
240 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 71%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed