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i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Heart Sixloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heart Six

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
20%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 946 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
376 picks · 573 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 610 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
294 picks · 584 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 264 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Heart Six
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 58%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictioncorrect