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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 7 games
86%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mac · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Bok · 6 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
80%

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 8 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
17%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 6 games
17%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 5 games
20%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xiaofu · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 941 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 570 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 608 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
292 picks · 580 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 262 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 28%
Hero pool strength62% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:26
Omega Esports 71%LBZS 29%
The model gave 71% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by LBZS in 20:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTino-
58% · 66 games38% · 44 games
UrsaMS
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerMac
49% · 35 games43% · 98 games
Marsxiaofu
Mars
Lycan
LycanSam_H
55% · 35 games46% · 75 games
Earth SpiritCatYou
Earth Spirit
Death Prophet
Death Prophetcml
65% · 81 game
Game 2prediction correct44:24
Omega Esports 68%LBZS 32%
The model gave 68% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTino-
49% · 22 games54% · 41 game
Troll WarlordMS
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMac
48% · 47 games57% · 35 games
Lycanxiaofu
Lycan
Kunkka
KunkkaSam_H
41% · 19 games42% · 21 game
LionCatYou
Lion
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverncml
53% · 9 games
Game 3prediction correct47:34
Omega Esports 68%LBZS 32%
The model gave 68% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTino-
little data67% · 5 games
Sand Kingxiaofu
Sand King
Enigma
EnigmaSam_H
55% · 7 games51% · 25 games
MorphlingMS
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderMac
43% · 13 games43% · 3 games
Spirit BreakerCatYou
Spirit Breaker
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
47% · 13 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 81%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3