Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 4 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 3 games
Tusk
AhFu · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 3 games
Xtreme Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Windranger
Storm · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 939 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 569 bans
Mars
326 picks · 608 bans
Death Prophet
292 picks · 578 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 261 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)13% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:11
Team SMG 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanvtFαded
ViperStorm
MarsOhaiyo
Outworld DestroyerMushi
TuskAhFu
Game 2prediction missed32:12
Team SMG 36%Xtreme Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team SMG in 20:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeavervtFαded
LinaStorm
MarsOhaiyo
EnigmaAhFu
TuskMushi
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 72%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2