i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shenzhenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 938 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 567 bans
Mars
326 picks · 606 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 577 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 261 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:24
Team MagMa 39%Shenzhen 61%
The model gave 61% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 24:17.
Game 2prediction correct10:29
Team MagMa 39%Shenzhen 61%
The model gave 61% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Shenzhen in 27:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 61%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2