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EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:3
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:3
ViKin.ggwin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Miposhka · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 4 games
50%

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 10 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 9 games
22%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
KheZu · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 932 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 565 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 600 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
291 picks · 572 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 257 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 170 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 405 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
239 picks · 327 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:11
Team Spirit 44%ViKin.gg 56%
The model gave 56% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:49.
Game 2prediction correct1:18
Team Spirit 44%ViKin.gg 56%
The model gave 56% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 22:16.
Game 3prediction correct39:23
Team Spirit 44%ViKin.gg 56%
The model gave 56% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 48:38.
Game 4prediction correct13:39
Team Spirit 44%ViKin.gg 56%
The model gave 56% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 38:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 56%
Series resultViKin.gg 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4