Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragonwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RR · 3 games
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Axeoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 932 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 563 bans
Mars
325 picks · 599 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 569 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 256 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 170 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 404 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 54%
Series resultDragon 0:2
Series predictionmissed