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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
skebobloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

skebob

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sayuw · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
ssnovv1 · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Xakoda · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Difference · 2 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Cloud · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Xakoda · 1 game
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
sayuw · 1 game
0%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
35%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Xibbe · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 876 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 638 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 595 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
398 picks · 828 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
360 picks · 583 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
347 picks · 571 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 483 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% skebob
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:9
skebob 49%AVULUS 51%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by skebob in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunassnovv1
40% · 36 games50% · 355 games
Beastmasterdualrazee
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDifference
53% · 98 games52% · 297 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
50% · 328 games53% · 300 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Tusk
Tusksayuw
49% · 481 game42% · 188 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroXakoda
51% · 506 games54% · 309 games
Shadow ShamanWein
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct2:18
skebob 48%AVULUS 52%
The model gave 52% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 19:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertassnovv1
50% · 288 games53% · 176 games
LifestealerSmiling Knight
Lifestealer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDifference
53% · 64 games47% · 434 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
55% · 467 games53% · 282 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockXakoda
44% · 535 games48% · 400 games
RingmasterWein
Ringmaster
Tusk
Tusksayuw
51% · 558 games48% · 620 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct13:15
skebob 49%AVULUS 51%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursassnovv1
47% · 260 games51% · 272 games
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
51% · 318 games51% · 318 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Viper
ViperDifference
47% · 57 games56% · 100 games
EnigmaCorrupted
Enigma
Dazzle
DazzleXakoda
54% · 128 games45% · 345 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansayuw
47% · 327 games53% · 55 games
Ogre Magiasdekor_r
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 55%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3