Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionAAstronautsloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ghost frogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Astronauts
No games played over 6 months.
Ghost frogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 929 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 560 bans
Mars
325 picks · 596 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 563 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 255 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 168 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Astronauts
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:22
Astronauts 43%Ghost frogs 57%
The model gave 57% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 28:48.
Game 2prediction correct28:24
Astronauts 43%Ghost frogs 57%
The model gave 57% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 41:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 57%
Series resultGhost frogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2