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EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
High Coast Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 10 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 9 games
22%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
KheZu · 8 games
50%

High Coast Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 926 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 558 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
325 picks · 595 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
291 picks · 560 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 255 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 168 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 402 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
239 picks · 324 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:5
ViKin.gg 71%High Coast Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 26:22.
Game 2prediction missed8:24
ViKin.gg 71%High Coast Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 30:32.
Game 3prediction correct23:6
ViKin.gg 71%High Coast Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 26:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 71%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3