EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Prosti Esliloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 922 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 556 bans
Mars
325 picks · 595 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 554 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 255 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 168 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 400 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
PuckChamp 71%Prosti Esli 29%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 21:04.
Game 2prediction correct38:32
PuckChamp 71%Prosti Esli 29%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 39:46.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 71%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2