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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Almost Disbandedwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Almost Disbanded

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
58%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 922 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 555 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
325 picks · 594 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
291 picks · 551 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 254 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 168 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 399 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
239 picks · 323 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Almost Disbanded
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Almost Disbanded
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:18
Almost Disbanded 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Almost Disbanded — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:01.
Game 2prediction correct37:17
Almost Disbanded 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Almost Disbanded — the game was taken by Almost Disbanded in 36:26.
Game 3prediction correct48:25
Almost Disbanded 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Almost Disbanded — the game was taken by Almost Disbanded in 44:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlmost Disbanded · 56%
Series resultAlmost Disbanded 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3