EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Uniquewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EXTREMUM
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 921 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 553 bans
Mars
325 picks · 594 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 549 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 253 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 168 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 398 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:17
EXTREMUM 52%Team Unique 48%
The model gave 52% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Team Unique in 30:40.
Game 2prediction missed49:46
EXTREMUM 52%Team Unique 48%
The model gave 52% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Team Unique in 1:13:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 52%
Series resultTeam Unique 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2