Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
RR · 3 games
Xtreme Gaming
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 3 games
Windranger
Storm · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 918 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 552 bans
Mars
325 picks · 593 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 545 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 253 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 167 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 50%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed