Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionQqwertywin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TTOPREDAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
qwerty
No games played over 6 months.
TOPREDA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 918 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 552 bans
Mars
325 picks · 593 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 545 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 253 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 167 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% qwerty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% TOPREDA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
qwerty 44%TOPREDA 56%
The model gave 56% on TOPREDA — the game was taken by TOPREDA in 37:52.
Game 2prediction missed18:8
qwerty 44%TOPREDA 56%
The model gave 56% on TOPREDA — the game was taken by qwerty in 26:41.
Game 3prediction missed26:19
qwerty 44%TOPREDA 56%
The model gave 56% on TOPREDA — the game was taken by qwerty in 36:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTOPREDA · 56%
Series resultqwerty 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3