FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:3series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:3
EHOMEwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
Tusksignature
XinQ · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 6 games
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 12 games
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Grimstroke
Frisk · 5 games
Luna
Frisk · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Chalice · 5 games
Clockwerk
xNova · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
399 picks · 916 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 551 bans
Mars
324 picks · 592 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 544 bans
Earth Spirit
287 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:24
LGD Gaming 55%EHOME 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingAme
IoSylar
Void SpiritNothingToSay
RazorXm
MarsFaith_bian
LycanChalice
Elder TitanXinQ
LionFrisk
Grimstrokey`
TuskxNova
Game 2prediction missed30:46
LGD Gaming 54%EHOME 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 47:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNothingToSay
SpectreSylar
Phantom AssassinAme
Nature's ProphetChalice
MagnusFaith_bian
Void SpiritXm
GrimstrokeXinQ
PhoenixFrisk
Clockwerky`
Nyx AssassinxNova
Game 3prediction missed40:30
LGD Gaming 55%EHOME 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 49:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingAme
MorphlingSylar
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Nature's ProphetChalice
TuskFaith_bian
LeshracXm
Ancient ApparitionXinQ
Dark WillowFrisk
Grimstrokey`
Earth SpiritxNova
Game 4prediction missed28:36
LGD Gaming 57%EHOME 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 47:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
SpectreSylar
JuggernautAme
Sand KingChalice
PuckNothingToSay
Void SpiritXm
Ember SpiritXinQ
GrimstrokeFrisk
Elder Titany`
Earth SpiritxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Series resultEHOME 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4