Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragonloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Crocodilewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
Axe
ghost · 1 game
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
ghost · 1 game
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
Crocodile
Elder Titan
QYQX · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Abaddon
QYQX · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
399 picks · 916 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 551 bans
Mars
324 picks · 592 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 544 bans
Earth Spirit
287 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Crocodile
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 65%
Series resultCrocodile 1:2
Series predictioncorrect