FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Elephantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 12 games
Tusk
xNova · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 6 games
Clockwerk
xNova · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Grimstroke
Frisk · 4 games
Lion
Frisk · 4 games
Luna
Frisk · 4 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 915 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 549 bans
Mars
323 picks · 591 bans
Death Prophet
290 picks · 543 bans
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:3
EHOME 50%Elephant 50%
The model gave 50% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 25:24.
Game 2prediction correct52:13
EHOME 50%Elephant 50%
The model gave 50% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 37:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 50%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2