Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ghost frogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Ghost frogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 912 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 548 bans
Mars
323 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
290 picks · 541 bans
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Team Bald Reborn 41%Ghost frogs 59%
The model gave 59% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 31:12.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Bald Reborn 41%Ghost frogs 59%
The model gave 59% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 59%
Series resultGhost frogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2