Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionHUhehe unitedwin 1:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BFBurning Fireloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
hehe united
No games played over 6 months.
Burning Fire
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 911 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 547 bans
Mars
323 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
290 picks · 539 bans
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 526 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% hehe united
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Burning Fire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
hehe united 49%Burning Fire 51%
The model gave 51% on Burning Fire — the game was taken by hehe united.
Model check result
Model favoriteBurning Fire · 51%
Series resulthehe united 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1