Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Meta4Prowin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PEplan-B esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Lion
Niqua · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Clockwerk
Niqua · 1 game
plan-B esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 911 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 547 bans
Mars
323 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
290 picks · 539 bans
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 526 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Meta4Pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Meta4Pro 53%plan-B esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Meta4Pro — the game was taken by Meta4Pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteMeta4Pro · 53%
Series resultMeta4Pro 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1