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EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
High Coast Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
50%

High Coast Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 910 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
370 picks · 546 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
323 picks · 590 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
290 picks · 538 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
286 picks · 252 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 166 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 395 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 525 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
Tundra Esports 54%High Coast Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 26:33.
Game 2prediction missed18:7
Tundra Esports 54%High Coast Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 25:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 54%
Series resultHigh Coast Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2